know your city

The Secret Behind The Weather Report

If you are a new entrant to the game that is weather forecasting for a living, you are going to get a lot of complaints. People depend on you and want you to be right every time you give a prediction. The truth is that you aren’t a psychic. You can never actually predict the weather with 100% accuracy, even though the general public thinks that you should. Because of this, every time something does go wrong, people blame you. They send you complaints about their ruined plans and their bad days when there is nothing you can do about it. You might think that you aren’t the one to blame for their anger, but the fact of the matter is that you actually might be.
Remember that you are working with Chance
A lot of meteorological products Singapore only give you the chance that the weather will turn good or foul on a certain day. This is usually presented to you as a percentage. When you see something like a 30% chance of rain, it doesn’t mean that you know how long that rain will last, or if it will rain at all. Being a good forecaster means that you don’t make promises of weather that you can’t control. For example, predicting the snowfall for a day is one of the most difficult tasks for any weatherman. If you go ahead and talk about the amount of expected snowfall a couple of days in advance, you are likely to have many disappointed viewers later.
Keep the Expiry Date of your Forecast in Mind
For most meteorological products there is a time limit for accurate predictions. The most accurate forecasts can be made for three days from the date of measurement. It becomes harder to predict the weather as the time period increases. Remember that even then, the forecast can’t be precise. A good forecast is one where the predicted temperature and actual temperature were off by a couple of degrees or more. This acceptable range has to grow as the time period increases. If you are off by 5 degrees a week after the forecast, you are still going to be within this acceptable limit for the prediction.
Most of the instruments that predict the weather patterns are run by mathematical formulae. They can’t imagine, they can’t think and they definitely can make mistakes if they are fed the wrong data. Because of this, it is often up to you as the forecaster to recognize when the readings seem wrong and correct them accordingly.

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